Prediction trouble or Now Arriving in 1941

ddsilver

ddsilver

Chrono Cadet
Apologies if this has been hashed over before... I'm slowly reading ancient threads.

Let's say I invent a time machine, and I'm like... "Joy! Let's get on back to the 40s!" So, I dial up, say, October 12, 1941, Los Angeles. I got my awesome suit, a cool hat, and I'm ready to meet the ladies! All right!

So, after the evening's entertainment, I wake up on October 13, 1941, and I'm like, well, I'd better get on back to 2010, now. But, wait! Let me call up a reporter, or a government official, or at least some Navy dude, and let them know that Pearl Harbor is going to be attacked by the Japanese Air Force on 7 Dec.

First thing: No one believes me. I'm a nut/conspiracy theorist. Japan had diplomats in Washington working toward a treaty at that very time. Anyone sympathetic to me, for example, if I showed someone my Kansas driving license, and they took it at face value that I was born in 1974, they'd just be lumped into the nut/conspiracy theorist category along with me.

So, I say, FINE! Maybe I can help after I'm proven correct. I hang around until Dec 8, 1941. Then, I'd be immediately arrested and charged with treason. Obviously, I have highly connected sources within Imperial Japan... how else would I have known about the attack? My in-depth knowledge of US military strength and posturing post 12/7 would only cement my reputation as a spy.

Then, of course, I'm going to get the obscuro questions. Who will win the Dodgers/Giants game on April 23, 1942? How the hell should I know? What horse wins the Kentucky Derby? Beats me.

I'm going to end up in mental confinement or hung. So, I'd just have to give up and go back to 2010, and let WWII happen.
 
That's one of the age old problems with accurate predictions. It's best to let things be. People always get the wars they deserve.
 
Hi DDsilver:

You could improve your chances by telling people on Saturday April 13, 1912 that the Titanic would sink on Monday morning. Also, giving people on Monday, May 3, 1937 a Hindenburg warning. OK evenso, changing one event like the Titanic could change the date on which the Hindenburg catches fire and it could even prevent the first world war.
 
Apologies if this has been hashed over before... I'm slowly reading ancient threads.
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If we assume that you have the ability to time travel there is a way to make it work. I'll also assume that you're of the right age - early to mid-20's. Hopefully you have a college education.

Don't travel directly to 1941. Instead travel first back to the 1920's and 1930's and establish an identity for yourself. Next, travel to the late 1930's and join the Navy. Your intent is to get into Naval Intelligence. Establish your credibility as an analyst. Baby steps - not grand "predictions" - start getting your intel reports correct. Establish a system of anonymous "sources" for your intelligence. You won't be required to divulge the sources (which are you, obviously). Now, after several years of being in the game you can make your predictions of an impending attack. You report that credible, tested sources have sighted the carrier fleet leaving Tokoyo Bay. Other sources report that the fleet is headed toward Hawaii. Other sources (also known to your chain-of-command, anonymously, from your previous reports) site similar fleets headed toward Alaska and the Luzon Island.

You now have the ability to get some action.

The "right age" issue concerns your ability to join the Navy at the right time. If you're too young or too old it won't work, at least not for you. It would then take another agent of the correct age to be placed at the right time. The college education requirement concerns the agent's ability to get into Navy OCS. A Navy Lt. (SG) is going to have an easier time getting into the right position than a Petty Officer.
 
Now, after several years of being in the game you can make your predictions of an impending attack. You report that credible, tested sources have sighted the carrier fleet leaving Tokoyo Bay. Other sources report that the fleet is headed toward Hawaii. Other sources (also known to your chain-of-command, anonymously, from your previous reports) site similar fleets headed toward Alaska and the Luzon Island.
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Hmm.....the trouble is......well done for averting WW2, but due to that you have now created a world in which you were never born. As a result of that, you would never have existed to go back in time and avert the war.
 
Hmm.....the trouble is......well done for averting WW2, but due to that you have now created a world in which you were never born. As a result of that, you would never have existed to go back in time and avert the war
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You could well be correct. In my post I was ignoring physics entirely. I was just attempting to deal with the credibility issue. Though unstated, everything in the post had to be predicated on the assumption that time travel to the past is possible.

If you accomplish the task and avert America's entry into WWII or simply change the circumstances in which America enters WWII the world thereafter would be populated by an entirely different set of living humans who, in the original history, died childless but in the altered history live and have children. Similarly, others who in the original history survived WWII and had children die in combat childless. It makes the underlying reason for time travel in this scenario pointless. You might affect a change but you would have no idea what the effect of the change would be. It brings into question why someone would want to avoid Pearl Harbor if, from the perspective of the future, it never happened. You came from the future and whatever happened at Pearl Harbor on 7-DEC-1941 would be a part of your past. If you went back to change something why didn't you see the result in the future before you went back? There's more than a failure of logic here.

Now someone will read this and bring up Many Worlds. The answer is: Many Worlds? So what?. If the theory is correct the changed scenario was already enbedded in the probability wave and was played out in another universe. After you did whatever it was that you did to affect the change it just resulted in your landing in one of the infinite number of possible where Pearl Harbor never occured.
 
Now someone will read this and bring up Many Worlds. The answer is: Many Worlds? So what?. If the theory is correct the changed scenario was already enbedded in the probability wave and was played out in another universe. After you did whatever it was that you did to affect the change it just resulted in your landing in one of the infinite number of possible where Pearl Harbor never occured.
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Yes that's an interesting point. One does not need to go back and 'change the past'....because that past will already have happened anyway in some supposed alternate timeline. And to go back and change your own timeline.....well then you get the grandfather paradox where you could shoot your own grandfather and prevent yourself ever being born.

Of course.....if we accept multiple timelines ( and I don't ) then by definition there are worlds where Hitler and Japan won the war, Napoleon conquered all of Europe, or the Roman Empire is still going, or Britain still runs the USA .

But conversely......you would also have worlds where the ancient Greeks discovered science ( they were on the brink ) and invented time machines 2000 years ago. So......where are the ancient Greek time travellers ?
 
Since we're assuming time travel is possible, we can also assume the society is advanced enough to have something like an iPhone. The easiest way to establish credibility for your time traveling would be to download footage of American Soldiers fighting in WWII or FDR's annoucement of War or of the Attack on Pearl Harbour. Its not as if they can deny the footage is real if it includes faces of well known political figures at the time. Or even showing them a colored tv show could work.
 
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