Re: Almost TIME to Wrap It Up in a Bow!
To Rain:
As predicted the recession is turning into a D-pression. People who go out of the stock market in 2005, sold their house in 2005, and bought gold are fine. Gold that average around 400 and change in 2005, double to around 800 in 2008.
However, people who listen to Darby saw their $500,000 house go down to maybe $300,000 if they can find a cash buyer. Banks are a bit tight with money now. After Apocalypse Dow people get wiped out. They saw their stock portfolio get DOWsized. Their 401K got smashed and they cant retire any time soon.
There be blood on the street, WALL STREET, and things are going to get worse, much worse.
http://money.cnn.com/2008/11/20/markets/markets_newyork/index.htm?postversion=2008112015
It is now called the great crash of 2008. I warn you this was coming.
http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/article/132508/The-Great-Crash-of-'08-(Cont.)-Dow-Below-7600-S&P-at-11-Year-Low?tickers=C,GM,MOS,%5EGSPC,%5EDJI,JPM,F
To Darby:
Actually, there are many product that never make it out of the lab. Getting back to familiar territory, Steven Gibbs called me today and told me that things in 2009 are going to be a lot worse than now.
I am taking steps to make sure that I have plenty of food and fuel. This year I was hit with a fuel shortage at harvest season and many filling stations were closed due to lack of fuel. Down to only fifty gallons and force to make many calls and put pressure on people to get it.
http://www.usatoday.com/money/industries/food/2008-06-16-corn-prices-jump_N.htm
Back in August 2008 a farmer could get $6/bushel for corn. Now in November they are lucky to get $4/b - the local coop pays $3.71 and the price is falling. Analysts say that in Jan 2009 corn will be down to $3/b.
Back in August there was a fuel shortage so farmers could not harvest grain. I called in a lot of favors and was able to get fuel at top dollar. The farmers were able to make the harvest. Rather than praise my ability you made fun of my decision.
Well, one farmer waited for lower fuel prices. As a result in September it started to rain. Now in November it is raining almost every day. Not only that, he must now pay to dry the corn. If you put wet corn in without drying it will get moldy. This is an additional cost.
As a result of the rain his combine got stuck in the mud. It was pulled out finally but badly damaged. A $200,000 combine gone. The farmer told me that he now bought a cheapo from China for $29,000 - GOOD LUCK!
He was in a rush to harvest because we have a major rat problem. If he waits until Jan 2009 vermin will have reduced his yield by 50%. According to him, get gets 250 bushels an acre. I am lucky to get 200, but giving him the benefit of the doubt, since he lost about 1/5 due to flooding that leaves 200 bushels per acre.
So we have two scenarios.
Harvest in August
Diesel $5/gallon, crop size 200,000 bushels, price $6/b = $1,200,000 cost $5,000
Harvest in January
Diesel $3/gallon, crop size 100,000 bushel, price $3/b = $300,000 cost $3,000